Central Michigan University

• Groundhog makes no guarantees

Topics in this story: College of Science and Technology, Geography, News tips and sources

SOURCE:
Ashton Peyrefitte Jr., assistant professor
Central Michigan University
Phone: 989-774-1673
E-mail: peyre1ag@cmich.edu

When it comes to weather forecasting, Punxsutawney Phil has nothing on your local meteorologist.

The furry rodent prognosticator first came on the American scene in 1841. Now known as Groundhog Day, this modern tradition is actually based on the ancient European holiday of Candlemas.

Every Feb. 2, the population of Punxsutawney, Pa., triples as crowds descend upon the town to see the world's most famous groundhog make his prediction. If Phil sees his shadow and scurries back into his hole, tradition dictates that we are in for six more weeks of winter. Clear skies and no shadow in sight, however, portend an early spring.

For the record, the groundhog's annual prediction has been accurate about 30 percent of the time.

A Central Michigan University faculty member is available for comment on the tradition.

A few of Peyrefitte's thoughts:

• "While modern meteorology can predict weather within a span of hours at a high level of accuracy, trusting an animal to forecast six weeks out is all in good fun, but certainly not based on fact."
• "Computer models regularly forecast the weather out to 16 days; however five days is a stretch in its own right, especially with no upper-air data over the Pacific Ocean."
• "Phil's actions are in response to the current weather situation &mdash not a sign of things to come. For example, if a cat loses fur in the summertime, it is responding to its immediate environment. That does not indicate that a warmer winter is on the way."

CMU Media Relations contact:
Kristi Ries
989-774-1072
kristi.ries@cmich.edu